China's fast-evolving consumer finance market
Contents
1. Footnote
China's consumer finance industry lags far behind the economy as a whole. In 2007, consumer finance balances still came to less than 13 percent of GDP, below India and far below Singapore and South Korea. Should recent growth rates persist, consumer lending promises to exceed 8 trillion renminbi ($1.2 trillion) by 2014, up from today's 3.7 trillion renminbi.( n1) But that calculation understates the market's latent potential. If consumer lending on the mainland rose to Taiwan's level, for instance, the shift could unleash as much as 10 trillion renminbi in net new consumption over the next five years--an enormous opportunity for banks and retailers.
China's people now have limited credit options. Mortgages account for 90 percent of lending to consumers, who have few choices in key product areas, such as auto loans, credit cards, and personal loans. But the market has grown rapidly in recent years. Credit card issuance is skyrocketing, from 3 million cards in 2003 to 128 million by the end of 2008. Indeed, card issuance could surpass 300 million by 2013. Similarly, unsecured personal loans and installment loans, long the domain of underground lenders, have grown at an annual rate of 33 percent since 2006, to 744 billion renminbi, as leading domestic banks and consumer finance specialists strengthened their risk-management capabilities.
For foreign and local lenders jockeying for position in China's fast-evolving consumer finance market, we see several keys to success.
1. Recognize the market's diversity. China is a collection of local markets, each at a different stage of development, with distinct risk profiles and unique consumer preferences. These markets generally evolve through three stages of development: nascent (such as Sichuan), emerging (Jiangsu), and maturing (Shanghai). Lenders should take a portfolio view, focusing on the most promising markets, but with enough diversity to capture the next wave of growth.
2. Find a product portfolio that matches consumer preferences. In a sense, consumer-lending products are fungible. Many consumers balance their savings and borrowing in the aggregate, not by individual products. Some countries (such as South Korea) have high levels of credit card usage; others rely more on cash and personal loans. In the present early stage, the ultimate product balance in China remains to be determined. Finding the right mix may prove crucial to success in China's fast-growing market.
3. Know the rules and their evolution. New regulations issued by Chinese banking regulators in the spring of 2009 give local and foreign banks and consumer finance specialists greater access to the market, in the form of consumer finance companies. While initially restricted to offering installment loans to retail customers with previous track records in borrowing, such companies will probably enable attackers to participate in the unsecured consumer-lending sector more quickly and at greater scale. In addition, the further deregulation of credit cards has allowed overseas banks to issue renminbi-based ones. These banks should target clear segments and develop the ability to serve the broader market.
Would-be players in such a new market must tread carefully. To assure responsible lending and borrowing, the government must strengthen credit bureaus, improve financial education, support 'new to credit' products (for instance, low-limit or collateralized credit cards), and allow consumer finance balances to be securitized. Regulators and lenders must work together to improve risk management, especially the ability to identify and address organized fraud. The government must become better at spotting national and local credit bubbles.
China can manage the risks and has ample room to expand consumer credit--safely.
中國的快速發展消費金融市場
內容
1。腳註
中國的消費金融業遠遠落後於整體經濟。 2007年，消費信貸余額仍然發生了不到國內生產總值的百分之十三，低於印度，遠遠低於新加坡和韓國。如果最近的增長率持續下去，消費貸款承諾2014年將超過8萬億人民幣（1.2萬億美元），從今天的3.7萬億人民幣。（n1）重的計算，但低估了市場的潛能。如果消費者在大陸的貸款上升到臺灣的水平，例如，這種變化可能引發在未來5年高達10萬億人民幣的凈新的消費多 - 為銀行和零售商的巨大機會。
中國人民現在是有限的信貸方案。抵押貸款占貸款的百分之90的消費者，誰在關鍵產品領域，如汽車貸款，信用卡幾個選擇，以及個人貸款。但市場發展迅速，近年來。信用卡發行是暴漲的3萬2003卡，為128萬，到2008年底。事實上，發卡可能超過3.0億，到2013年。同樣，無抵押個人貸款和分期付款貸款，長期貸款的地下領域，增長百分之33在壹年增長率自2006年以來，至744億元人民幣作為國內領先的銀行和消費者金融專家，加強其風險管理能力。
對外國和本地貸款在中國的快速發展的消費金融市場領導地位的競賽中，我們看到壹些成功的關鍵。
1。認識到市場的多樣性。中國是壹個本地市場的集合，每個在不同的發展階段，不同的風險狀況和獨特的消費偏好。通過這些市場壹般發展三個發展階段：新生（如四川），新興（江蘇），和成熟（上海）。貸款人應采取組合的看法，在最有希望的市場為重點，但有足夠的多樣性，以捕捉到下壹個發展浪潮。
2。查找產品組合相匹配的消費偏好。在某種意義上，消費信貸產品互換。許多消費者平衡儲蓄和借貸總額由個別產品，而不是。如韓國的壹些國家（）有信用卡使用率很高的水平;別人更多地依靠現金和個人貸款。在目前的初期階段，在中國最終產品的平衡還有待確定。找到合適的組合可能是極端重要的在中國的快速成長的市場取得成功。
3。知道規則及其演變。由中國銀行監管機構在2009年發布給當地和外國銀行和消費者金融專家更自由地進入市場，消費金融公司的形式，春天的新規定。雖然最初僅限於提供分期貸款，在貸款前紀錄的零售客戶，這些公司將可能使攻擊者在無抵押消費貸款部門的參與更迅速，規模更大。此外，信用卡的進壹步放松管制已經允許外資銀行發行人民幣為基礎的。這些銀行的目標應明確部門和發展服務的能力，廣闊的市場。
想要成為這樣壹個新的市場參與者必須謹慎行事。為了保證負責任的貸款和借款，政府必須加強征信機構，完善金融教育，支持新的信貸的產品（例如，低限制或抵押信用卡），並允許消費者將證券化融資余額。監管機構和貸款人必須***同努力，改善風險管理，特別是能夠識別和處理有組織的欺詐。政府要更好地察覺成為國家和地方的信貸泡沫。
中國可以管理風險，有足夠的空間，擴大消費信貸 - 安全。